Please note: All training, webinars, and professional development content has been moved to hydroschool.org. Please find current content for floodways at hydroschool.org/pmf/.
This page provides supplemental resources to accompany the 8 Sep 2021 free AWS webinar “What the PMF“, addressing the Probable Maximum Flood. This webinar supports a training course dedicated to the estimation of extreme events in Australia: ARR Course #6: Extreme Events. View the recording here:
Previous Webinars
- Hear an overview of Course 6:
- Learn about climate change impacts on extreme event hydrology, including the PMF:
- Daryl Lam discusses palaeoflood hydrology:
- Learn about GLOFs and other events that can exceed PMF estimates by orders of magnitude:
Extreme Events in Australia
[Citation: Nathan, R. and Weinmann, P.E. (2019): Book 8 – Estimation of Very Rare to Extreme Floods in Ball J, Babister M, Nathan R, Weeks W, Weinmann E, Retallick M, Testoni I, (Editors), Australian Rainfall and Runoff: A Guide to Flood Estimation. Commonwealth of Australia (Geosciences Australia). ISBN 978-1-925297-07-2.]
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology web page covering the greatest observed rainfall in Australia and worldwide:
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology Webpage covering Probable Maximum Precipitation, including GSDM, GTSMR, and GSAM methods:
Rory Nathan Publications:
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 2021: Incorporating Climate Change in Flood Estimation Guidance
- Australasian Journal of Water Resources, 2005: Temporal patterns for the derivation of PMPDF and PMF estimates in the GTSM region of Australia
- Journal of Hydrology, December 2016: Estimating the Exceedance Probability of Extreme Rainfalls up to the Probable Maximum Precipitation
- Nathan, R.J., Hill, P.I. and Griffith, H. (2002): Risk Implications of the PMF and the PMP Design Flood ANCOLD Bulletin – Issue No. 121, 47-53.
- Lang, S., Nathan, R., Shea, D. O., Scorah, M., Zhang, J., Kuczera, G., & Schaefer, M. (2019). Estimating Extreme Rainfall Probabilities for Large Catchments in Northern Australia. Proc. ANCOLD Conference. 10th-11th October 2019, Auckland.
- Nathan, R.J., Weinmann, P.E., and Gato, S (1994): A quick method for estimation of the probable maximum flood in south-east Australia. International Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Water Down Under, November, Adelaide, I.E. Aust. Natl. Conf. Publ. No. /94, 229-234. See also Nathan, R.J., Weinmann, P.E., and Minty, L. (1999): Estimation of the Annual Exceedance Probability of Probable Maximum Precipitation in South East Australia, Aus J Water Resources 3(1), 143-154.
Daryl Lam Publications:
- Lam, D, RX., 2017. Extreme Flood Events in South East Queensland: Evidence and Implications. PhD Dissertation, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland.
- Lam, D., Thompson, C., Croke, J., Sharma, A. and Macklin, M., 2017. Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: the contribution of palaeoflood and historical flood information. Water Resource Research, doi:10.1002/2016WR019959
- Quaternary Science Reviews, 2020: Holocene palaeohydrology of the East Alligator River
- Lam, D., Thompson, C., & Croke, J., 2016. Improving at-site flood frequency analysis with additional spatial information: a probabilistic regional envelope curve approach. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 1-21, doi: 10.1007/s00477-016-1303-x.
- Australian Journal of Water Resources, April 2020: Improving Australia’s Flood Record for Planning Purposes
Krey Price Publications:
- This 2020 International Mine Water Association paper discusses the merits and challenges associated with designing infrastructure for PMF events:
- This 2018 HWRS paper addresses event-based versus duration-based assessments for extreme design events:
- This April 2019 Engineers Australia seminar discusses the question of event-based versus duration-based assessments for extreme events…with a wide range of possible answers:
USGS Publications:
World’s Largest Floods, Past and Present: Their Causes and Magnitudes, USGS 2004: 
Quantitative Paleoflood Hydrology, USGS 2021: 
USGS, 2008: An Evaluation of Selected Extraordinary Floods in the U.S.
Appendix A: Individual Evaluations of 30 Peak Discharges from Extraordinary Floods
Additional publications referenced in the presentations
- Salas, Anderson, Papalexiou, and Frances, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2020. PMP and Climate Variability and Change: A Review
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